DETERMINISTIC
SIGNAL.TRADING

A verdict-gated trading system for regulated prediction markets. No order exists without a fresh, hash-stamped audit verdict. Not a promise — a foreign-key constraint.

Adversarial logic audit applied to every trade thesis before execution. Deterministic verdicts. No narrative entries survive the gate.

// SECTION: THE_GATE
THESIS
Yours, or the signal box's. Stated plainly: market, side, probability claim, invalidation.
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AUDIT
DJZS-M taxonomy scans the logic: narrative gap · missing falsification · unsourced probability · no stated edge. The model detects; deterministic code decides.
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VERDICT
PASS / WAIT / FAIL — sha256-stamped before the outcome is knowable. Tamper-evident by construction.
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ORDER
PASS unlocks it. Anything else is refused at the database layer. The gate says no by default.
// SECTION: WHY_THIS_EXISTS

On the live event-market tape, roughly four of every five taker contracts enter below ten cents implied — and resolve near zero. The favorites side grinds pennies that fees mostly reclaim. The 20–60¢ band — where actual theses live — is nearly empty.

The middle of this market is vacant because nobody makes mid-probability discipline tractable. This system exists to fill that vacancy: structure, invalidation, and a probability basis — enforced, not suggested.

// SECTION: HOW_IT_WORKS
01 · BRING A KEY
Your own Kalshi account, your own API key. The system never holds funds and never touches another member's account.
02 · STATE A THESIS
Market, side, probability claim, invalidation, reasoning. Plain language in — structure out.
03 · PAY THE TOLL
2.00 USDC via x402. Human or agent, same rail, one verdict per payment.
04 · GET THE VERDICT
PASS / WAIT / FAIL, risk score, which codes fired, the hash — stamped before the outcome exists. A FAIL shows you exactly where your logic broke, before it cost money. The refusal is also the product.
05 · EXECUTE ON PASS
A fresh PASS matching the audited market and side unlocks the order under your key. No PASS, no order — the database refuses.
06 · GET GRADED
Resolution lands; the ledger scores you. You accrue a tamper-evident personal record: your filter alpha, your calibration, your failure patterns — the mirror, hash-stamped.
// SECTION: LIVE_STATE
GATE
gate.deterministic-signal.trading — the only order endpoint refuses everything without a verdict.
LEDGER
Attribution ledger · fixed-point integers only — no floats anywhere on the money path.
LAST PROBE
this page probes the gate from your browser on every load.
// SECTION: ON_THE_RECORD
FIRST VERDICT — 2026-08-21
e2e-0001 · FAIL · RISK 60
verdict_hash 0x10d61c27…baee38, stamped pre-outcome. The engine's first recorded act was failing a thesis.
GATE PROOF
NO ORDER WITHOUT A VERDICT
Enforced by foreign key. Proven by refusal — twice, from independent seats. Structural, not advisory.
INCREMENT 1 — CLOSED
CERT 516771ec…e520b8
Schema live · verdict path live · gate proven · canonical probe 3/3, corroborated.
// SECTION: THE_SIGNAL_BOX

Ideas are allowed. Unaudited ideas are not.

Candidate theses come only from registered signal classes: fixed rules, named public data sources, backtests against historical resolutions, and kill criteria written before the first signal fires. Every class is Brier-scored against the hardest benchmark there is — the market price itself — and retires automatically when it stops beating it. And every output passes the same gate as a human thesis. The engine can, and will, fail its own signals. That refusal is a feature, printed on the record.

WHAT A SIGNAL IS
A pre-packaged thesis from a registered class — cross-venue divergence · reference-model gap · tail-bias fade · funding harvest — published with its probability claim, its own verdict and hash, and the class's live Brier-vs-market record.
WHAT IT IS NOT
An auto-trade. Ever. You read the signal, its audit, and its class's public record — and you decide. Execution is always yours, always your key.
THE TRUST RAMP
Shadow first: every class publishes with zero execution until its record exists in public. Classes that stop beating the market retire themselves — and the funerals are public too.
// SECTION: THE_LEDGER

Every verdict is graded at resolution. The accuracy claim is not "we predict markets" — it is filter alpha: do PASS-verdicted theses outperform the FAIL cohort they were separated from? That number is computed from hash-stamped rows written before outcomes existed. A public, tamper-evident scoreboard is the roadmap — receipts, not testimony.

// SECTION: OPERATING_MODEL
YOUR KEYS
BYO API KEY · YOUR ACCOUNT ONLY
The system never holds funds and never routes another member's orders. Built for CFTC-regulated event markets — Kalshi first.
THE TOLL
2.00 USDC / VERDICT · x402
Machine-payable per audit on Base. Agents pay the same toll humans do. The verdict is the product.
STATUS
PRE-LAUNCH · GATE LIVE
The audit engine and the gate run today. Venue execution ships only when explicitly ruled — until then, the system's answer to every order is no.
// SECTION: DOCTRINE
VERDICTS
PASS / WAIT / FAIL
DOCTRINE
AUDIT-BEFORE-ACT
ENGINE
LLM DETECTS · CODE DECIDES